Business School, Sichuan University
The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)
互联网加速了舆情的发展, 舆情讨论时刻都在发生. 为了探索决策者角色差异对舆情演化的影响, 本文改进传统DeGroot 模型, 在社交网络环境下考虑多种决策者角色共存的舆情演化模型. 首先将决策者分为权威者和非权威者, 然后从社会心理学的角度将非权威者随机分为服从者、反抗者和独立者. 针对传统模型的权重确定方式较为机械的不足, 引入节点在社会网络中的特征向量中心性, 提出新的权重确定方法. 每一步舆情演化都被分为两个阶段: 第一阶段所有决策者都进行舆情演化, 随后服从者和反抗者在第二阶段对其第一阶段的观点进行调整. 在连通的Erd?s-Rényi 网络中进行仿真实验, 结果显示, 服从者总是会与权威者达成共识, 且该共识由权威者的意见决定; 反抗者聚集在与服从者和权威者的共识较远的意见簇; 独立者的稳定意见则散落分布在二者之间, 且更加靠近服从者和权威者的共识.
The Internet has accelerated the public opinion formation, and public opinion discussions are happening all the time. In order to explore the influence of heterogenous agents on opinion evolution, this paper modifies the traditional DeGroot model and considers the opinion evolution where different kinds of agents coexist in the social network. Agents are divided into authority and non-authority. Then, from the perspective of social psychology, the non-authoritative agents are randomly classified into conformists, anticonformists and independent agents. To overcome the shortcoming of the traditional DeGroot model in determining weights, a new weight determination method is proposed by introducing the eigenvector centrality of nodes. There are two stages in each time step of the proposed model. In the first stage, all agents update their opinions through the DeGroot method. In the second stage, the anticonformists and independent agents are assumed to adjust their opinions obtained in the first stage. Simulation results in the connected Erd?s-Rényi networks show that the conformists reach a consensus with the authority and the consensus is determined by the authority’s opinion; the anticonformists form their opinion clusters that are far away from the conformists and the authority; the stable opinions of the independent agents are scattered between the anticonformists and authority and are closer to the consensus of the conformists and the authority.